Context
In addition to the issue of climate change, conflict in Africa has become a matter of increasing concern, necessitating urgent attention. The ongoing and escalating destabilizing conflicts in regions such as the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Great Lakes are a cause for concern (United Nations, 2024). The conflicts in these regions are predominantly associated with political instability, ethnic tensions, civil wars, territorial disputes, resource scarcity, economic disparities, and climate-induced insecurity, which collectively exacerbate already fragile humanitarian situations (Allen et al., 2024; Henrico & Doboš, 2024; United Nations, 2024). This inherent complexity poses a significant challenge to the pursuit of sustainable development, as it has the potential to impede the progress already made and even reverse the efforts that have been made thus far. Africa’s complex terrain and the interconnected nature of conflicts necessitate not only urgent and immediate interventions but also sustainable strategies to address the underlying causes of these conflicts. Mediation has been extensively promoted as a highly effective approach to conflict resolution, with its necessity gaining significant traction on the continent amidst escalating tensions. However, the role and effectiveness of mediation in promoting long-term peace and stability deserves more attention. This commentary explores the role of mediation as a critical pathway to peace, security and development in Africa. It offers insights and practical implications for policymakers, practitioners, and scholars alike.
Background
Conflict has emerged as a pervasive phenomenon, posing a significant threat to global peace, security, and prosperity. The international environment is characterized by a multitude of complex and interconnected conflicts, including political ones (see Figure 1), which have escalated to approximately 200,000 conflict events, representing a substantial increase from 104, 371 in 2020 (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 2024).
The exacerbation of humanitarian challenges is attributable to a multitude of factors, including political instability, ethnic tensions, civil wars, territorial disputes, economic inequality, resource scarcity, climate change, and geopolitical dynamics (Allen et al., 2024; Henrico & Doboš, 2024). Conflicts in Mexico, Venezuela, Palestine, Brazil, Myanmar, Indonesia, Lebanon, and Syria have resulted in significant human suffering, millions of refugees, and economic disruptions (ibid). In 2024, Palestine was the most unsafe and violent country, with 81% of its population exposed to hostilities and almost 50,000 deaths since the Hamas attack in October 2023 (ACLED, 2024).
Similarly, many regions in Africa, notably the Horn of Africa, Sahel, and the Great Lakes, have encountered challenges in attaining peace, security, and sustainable development (United Nations, 2024) due to the regional nature of conflicts. The escalation of political violence and instability in the Horn of Africa is attributable to several factors, including civil conflicts in countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan, political tensions in Kenya, the al-Shabaab insurgency in Somalia, territorial disputes, and the deteriorating humanitarian situation (Ibid). Over 10 million people have been displaced by the Sudanese conflict since April 2023, increasing the food crisis (IRC, 2024; UNICEF, 2024). Famine threatens nearly 400,000 people in North Darfur refugee camp (Ibid). Women and girls are especially affected, with millions facing acute violence, relocation, and food shortages. This dire circumstance engenders an elevated risk of sexual and gender-based violence.
In the Sahel region, there has been a notable escalation in the lethality of mass-casualty attacks targeting state forces, militias, and civilians in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (ACLED, 2024). These nations are confronted with an entrenched jihadist insurgency that continues to expand through the activities of groups such as the al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The aforementioned attacks in the region have resulted in hundreds of deaths, significant disruption to local governance, displacement of communities and undermined critical development efforts such as education, agriculture and healthcare (Sabahelzain et al., 2025).
The ongoing conflict between non-state armed groups, particularly the 23 March Movement (M23), and the Congolese Government’s Armed Forces (FARDC), reached a peak when M23 captured Goma, the regional hub of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This lead to an escalation in nationwide political violence, which surged following DRC’s December 2023 national elections (Center for Preventive Action, 2025). This has resulted in over 7,000 fatalities in 2025 alone, with unprecedented 7.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the DRC and slightly over 100,000 people seeking asylum in neighbouring countries such as Burundi and Uganda (ReliefWeb, 2025). Furthermore, 21 million people in DRC are in dire need of urgent medical, food, and other aid, constituting one of the largest and deadliest humanitarian crises in the world (ibid). The conflict has led to the reemergence of long-standing tensions between DRC and Rwanda and the DRC, which if not addressed promptly, could potentially escalate into full-scale regional conflict.
The socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities in Africa, heightened by climate change, are exacerbating poverty, inequality, and unemployment while escalating competition for limited resources. Countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia in the Horn of Africa have become a focal point for understanding how environmental stressors can reshape security landscapes. As climate-induced events like erratic rainfall, droughts and desertification intensify, the competition for limited resources, including water and arable land, has deepened tensions among communities and across borders in the region (Minko, 2025). As these disputes intensify, they present a substantial threat to peace, security, and the realization of Africa’s long-term development plans, including Agenda 2063 and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which promote equitable and sustainable development. Addressing these complex challenges necessitates more than merely addressing the immediate symptoms of conflict; it requires proactive and context-specific approaches to peacebuilding, such as mediation.
Mediation and conflict resolution in Africa
Mediation has become essential for conflict resolution[1] across the continent. Many African states have pledged “African solutions to African problems” to advance peace and stability (APSACO, 2024; SCR, 2024). This framework emphasizes local, culturally relevant and context-specific approaches, including mediation, to address conflict root causes. African leaders pledged to “silencing the guns” by 2020 on the 50th anniversary of the Organization of African Unity, the precursor to the African Union (AU). The extension of this initiative until 2030 emphasizes the growing role of mediation and other conflict resolution processes in Africa’s peace and security issues. UN Resolution 2457, passed by the United Nations Security Council in February 2019, supported the AU’s “Silencing the Guns” programme and mediation.
Mediation in this framework, involves a neutral third party helping opposing parties to prevent, manage, or resolve their disagreements (Muigua, 2017; United Nations, 2012). Mediation’s goal is to promote mutually agreeable resolutions that foster peace and stability (Ibid). Mediation is becoming increasingly important for resolving complex, cascading grievances, reducing escalation, and promoting sustainable peace (UN, 2021; World Bank, 2022). The United Nations Charter recognizes mediation as essential for peaceful dispute resolution in inter- and intra-state conflicts. Mediation, especially peace talks and dialogue between parties, is one of the most effective methods for conflict management and resolution, according to Muller (2021).
Regionally, the African Union (AU) has long prioritized mediation in its peacebuilding framework, placing the mediation support mandate under the Mediation and Dialogue Division (MDD) of the Conflict Management Directorate (CMD) of the Political Affairs, Peace, and Security Department (PAPS). The MDD provides technical, logistical, and operational support to AU-designated mediators and AU-led or supported mediation processes to strengthen and institutionalize the AU’s preventive diplomacy and mediation efforts. This integration reflects the AU Commission’s efforts to enhance the overall effectiveness of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the Africa Governance Architecture (AGA).
While the MDD has made a substantial contribution to the advancement of mediation professionalism within the AU, its practical outcomes have been varied. It played a constructive role in supporting successful preventive diplomacy during the post-election crisis in The Gambia (2016–2017). In this case, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the regional economic community, endeavored to facilitate a peaceful transition of power to President Adama Barrow. This effort was supported by the African Union (AU) and ultimately averted a potential crisis without resort to violence (Adetula et al., 2018; Hartmann, 2017). Furthermore, it endorsed regional initiatives, including the 2013-2015 IGAD-led mediation in South Sudan. However, the effectiveness of the AU has been constrained in complex crises such as those in Libya and Burundi (ibid). In these instances, geopolitical tensions, inadequate coordination with international actors, and limited political will among AU member states have contributed to the AU’s limited effectiveness.
In the same vein, the 1992 Mozambique General Peace Accord (GPA) concluded a protracted conflict that had persisted for nearly 15 years between the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) government and the armed opposition group, Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO). The conflict had resulted in the deaths of over a million people in the country and significant disruption to Mozambique’s infrastructure and economy (Turner & Federer, 2024). Despite the resurgence of violence on several occasions, particularly after 2012, with a total of nearly 5,800 deaths and over half a million individuals displaced as of July 2024 (World Bank Group)—demonstrating the challenges of maintaining durable peace—the 20 years of stability post-1992 GAP serves as a testament to the efficacy of mediation.
Similarly, the political crisis in Guinea, which emerged after a military coup in September 2021 and deepened the divide between the Guinean military and its citizens, while isolating Guinea from the rest of Africa, was amicably resolved through mediation. This resolution averted an unthinkable violent crisis that would have led to loss of life, disruption of governance, and development efforts in the country (APSACO, 2024). Mediation proved instrumental in the formulation of a political framework aimed at resolving the crisis. Moreover, it facilitated the persuasion of African countries to endorse Guinea’s national reconciliation efforts, a notable example being the establishment of the National Commission of Inquiry (Ibid).
In Togo, the 2017/2018 mediation led to the resolution of the political crisis between the president and the political class, resulting in the organization of free and transparent elections (Ibid). In Kenya, the mediation led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2008, following the contentious elections that caused fatalities and property damage, exemplifies the transformative potential of mediation in de-escalating political crises. However, its impact could have been even greater had there not been delays in intervention, which allowed the conflict to escalate before mediation began. This mediation between key political factions resulted in a power-sharing accord that restored peace (Wamai, 2018).
In recent times, the region has observed a concerted initiative spearheaded by numerous local and international actors, including the African Union, the Eastern Africa Community, the Southern Africa Development Community, and the United Nations, to address the persistent conflict in the DRC. It is important to note that the Angola-led Luanda process resulted in a truce between the DRC and Rwanda on July 30, 2024, thereby reducing hostilities (United Nations, 2024; Mwangi, 2025). Conversely, the Qatari-led mediation resulted in a ceasefire announcement by the Presidents of the DRC and Rwanda following a meeting in Doha, Qatar, on March 18, 2025.
While mediation’s contributions to conflict resolution in the region establishes it as a critical pathway in reshaping peace, security, and development landscapes, significant challenges confront this process, thereby weakening its effectiveness. Adetula et al. (2018) found that several of the 42% of all peace agreements relating to Africa in the UN Peace Agreements Database have failed to lay the foundations for sustainable peace. Some countries have fallen into what has been termed a “conflict trap,” which is defined as a state of ongoing and intractable conflict (Smith 45). Societies that have suffered civil war are often susceptible to subsequent relapses into violence. This phenomenon has been demonstrated in various incidents in Mozambique, particularly in the years following 2012. These incidents serve to illustrate the potential failure to address structural violence that is endemic in societies.
In certain instances, conflicts, the intricacies involved, a paucity of political will, and/or external interferences have curtailed the enduring efficacy of mediation and/or have culminated in unsuccessful mediations (Aduda, 2019; Awwad, 2023; Kong’ani et al., 2022; Magara & Rivers 2024). For instance, the repeated efforts of the AU and other mediators to establish peace and stability in Somalia have been unsuccessful, largely due to the ongoing insurgency of groups such as Al-Shabaab. Conflict in Ethiopia has given rise to concerns regarding the efficacy of mediation efforts and the potential for peace agreements (Ghebremeskel, 2023). The crisis surrounding the agreement to end the South Sudanese civil war, which was signed in August 2015 in the face of threatened UN sanctions against both warring sides (Adetula et al., 2018), serves as a salient example of non-acceptance and non-compliance with peace accords. The non-compliance of the parties in question may be indicative of suboptimal mediation processes, as well as broader issues of political will and limited enforcement procedures and capacities. This, in turn, undermines the effectiveness and credibility of robust normative frameworks within the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) that are designed to foster peace, security, and good governance. Such noncompliance plays a significant role in reversing progress made, fueling societal tension, and creating political instability as exemplified by the ongoing conflicts in countries such as the DRC and Mali, among others.
Notwithstanding these challenges, the unwavering commitment to mediation in Africa is noteworthy, as evidenced by the sustained efforts to utilize mediation as the primary means of conflict resolution. This commitment is exemplified by its substantial contribution to the restoration of peace on the continent. Given the regional nature of African conflicts and the interconnectedness of these conflicts, mediation provides a platform for inclusive dialogue that can address the root causes of conflict. While it is not a panacea, it presents a peaceful alternative to violent escalation, ensuring that conflicting parties have a chance to reach a mutually agreed-upon resolution.
Conclusion
The ongoing and escalation of destabilizing conflicts on the continent is worrisome. Africa’s intricate terrain calls for not only urgent and immediate interventions but sustainable strategies towards addressing the root causes of conflicts. Mediation remains a key tool in resolving such conflicts, but thoughtful changes to its practice might boost its efficacy. Mediation can better address underlying causes of conflicts by prioritizing early intervention, actively incorporating local populations, and thorough post-mediation evaluations. Introducing clear sanctions for non-compliance and using a holistic strategy that encompasses economic, social, and environmental concerns would also help sustain peace. Strengthening relationships and expanding funding for peace accord implementation are essential for continental stability and development. As Africa confronts intricate difficulties, enhancing mediation tactics will be crucial in fostering a more peaceful and secure future.
Recommendations
The following recommendations are put forth to enhance the efficacy of mediation in promoting timely, acceptable, fair, inclusive, and long-term outcomes.
Rethinking the Timing of Mediation
Intervention time is crucial to African mediation success. Mediation usually begins after large-scale violence and relocation. However, evidence reveals that early mediation, even before a dispute begins, might reduce violence and promote lasting peace (Kong’ani et al., 2022; Zartman, 2019). Many actors wait until a problem reaches a tipping point before intervening, overlooking this preemptive mediation strategy. Proactive diplomatic engagement, dialogue, and conflict mitigation could potentially mitigate the adverse effects of conflicts. It is imperative to take preemptive measures and engage in preventive diplomacy.
Engaging the Most Affected Populations
Heads of state and other elites have spearheaded peace dialogue, excluding local communities whose livelihoods are directly affected by the conflict. For instance, during the negotiation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) by the National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in 2005, facilitated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other actors, which ended two decades of civil conflict in the country, there was criticism of the lack of representation of civil society and local communities, particularly from marginalized regions of southern Sudan. In order to guarantee that mediation is truly inclusive, “voices from below” must be engaged. The incorporation of local perspectives has been demonstrated to facilitate enhanced comprehension of the conflict, legitimize peace agreements, and promote post-conflict healing.
Post-Mediation Evaluation
Peace agreements are celebrated as notably steps towards stability, but post-mediation review is often neglected. The lack of follow-up and monitoring makes it hard to tell if peace treaties have resulted in sustainable and inclusive peace or simply amount to temporary cessation of violence. In some cases, mediation rarely addresses issues such as accountability for war crimes, reintegration of displaced population, or reconstruction of local economy. In 2008, elite-level negotiations resulted in power-sharing agreements in Kenya and Zimbabwe following contested elections and violence. Heeseman and Tendi (2010), posit that the formation of these unity governments was driven by elite cooperation and political survival, rather than by democratic reforms or the pursuit of justice. It is evident that both solutions overlooked significant societal grievances and failed to tackle fundamental issues, such as transitional justice and substantial economic redistribution. This underscores the imperative for a systematic post-mediation evaluation approach that assesses peace agreements’ inclusivity, sustainability, and justice beyond hostilities.
Penalties for Noncompliance to peace agreements
The lack of peace accord enforcement procedures and/or the parties’ failure to implement agreements arising from mediation processes,in good faith, are some of the reasons why mediation fails. Parties that breach peace treaties or perpetuate hostilities frequently face few consequences. In order to encourage adherence to these obligations, regional organizations such as the AU and IGAD should impose penalties for non-compliance. The implementation of diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions has the potential to increase the financial burden associated with the violation of peace agreements and to enhance the accountability of mediation entities
Ensuring a Holistic Approach to Mediation
It is crucial to recognize that mediation in Africa should not be limited to political or military negotiations alone. A holistic approach is necessary; one that encompasses not only economic, social, and environmental factors that drive conflict—which is also regional in nature—but also incorporates gender-related concerns. Mediation efforts need to prioritize the identification and mitigation systemic inequalities, the promotion of social justice, and the assurance of environmental sustainability. The incorporation of these dimensions into the mediation process is imperative to ensure the stability and sustainability of peace efforts in Africa.
Fostering Partnerships and Collaborations
Strong partnerships and collaborations are needed to implement mediation agreements and maintain peace. In order to ensure the longevity of signed agreements, the involvement of international and local partners, as well as coordinated financial support, is essential (Turner & Federer, 2024). In alignment with David Shinn’s observations, a former United States Ambassador to Africa, the primary challenge in establishing peace accords does not lie in the signing itself, but rather in their subsequent implementation. This implementation necessitates the presence of accountable entities and the allocation of long-term resources.
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