Ethiopia, officially known as the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is the oldest independent modern state in Africa. It is situated in the horn of Africa where it shares borders with Sudan (to the west), Djibouti and Somalia (to the East), Kenya (to the south) and Eritrea (to the north). With a population of 123 million people (World Development Report, 2023). Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria, and the most populated land locked country in the world with a land mass of 1,112,000 square kilometers. It is noteworthy, however, that until Eritrea broke away from the Ethiopia in 1991, the country had access to the Red Sea. It is the desire to overcome the disadvantage of landlockness that recently motivated the Ethiopian government to recognize Somaliland which has access to the sea.
Ethiopia is ethnically heterogeneous, being home to almost eighty ethnic groups. The largest ethnic groups are Oromo (35.8%), Amhara (24.1%), Somali (7.2%), Tigray (5.7%), Sidama (4.1%), Guragie (2.6%), Welaita (2.3%), Afar (2.2%), Siite (1.3%), and Kefficho (1.2%). The rest constitute about 13.5% of the population (US State Department, 2023). Like many other multi-ethnic states in Africa, Ethiopia has had to deal with inter- ethnic tensions that have sometimes led to civil conflicts arising from ethnic nationalism. Political mobilization has tended to be along ethnic lines. The 2020-2022 armed conflict between the federal government and the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) was instigated by the Tigrayan ethno-nationalism. The significance of the ethnic factor is also underscored by the fact that the twelve (12) regional states, except the two chartered cities of Addis and Dire Dawa, that make up the Federation were demarcated along ethnic lines with the dominant group in the region forming the embryo. Their names also speak to the names of the respective dominant groups. Hence Oromia region (Oromo), Tigray (Tigray), Afar (Afar), Amhara (Amhara), Somali (Somali), etc.
Contemporary Ethiopia has a history that goes back several centuries. By the nineteenth century, Ethiopians had built a strong empire with an emperor as its ruler. The polity was so strong that even the Italians who attempted to colonize it in the early 20th century were successfully repelled by the Emperor’s army. The battle of Odawa, as the final duel at which the foreign invaders were defeated, remains a source of pride for the Ethiopian nation. Ethiopia remained the only country in its region that remained free. The monarchy managed to protect Ethiopia’s independence such that when the League of Nations and the United Nations were formed after the first and second world wars respectively, Ethiopia was the only country from Africa that participated in shaping the international order as it exists today. Subsequently, Ethiopia was one of the founders of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Union’s (AU) predecessor with its capital, Addis Ababa, becoming its headquarters.
The stability of the Ethiopian state was shaken in 1974 when the military overthrew the Emperor, Haile Selassie, bringing the monarchy to an end.
The instability that ensued after the coup was quickly redressed when the Derg, as the top leadership that immediately replaced the deposed monarch was known, appointed one of them, Mengistu Haile Mariam as head of state. Mengistu, an ardent follower of Marxist ideology, introduced communism as a way of political and economic life. His regime faced a myriad of problems, including domestic dissent, attempts by some sections of the country like Eritrea to secede and a war with Somalia over the Ogaden region inhabited by Ethiopian Somali in 1977-1978. It was also during his reign that a very devastating famine that attracted international attention occurred in Ethiopia, exposing Ethiopia’s environmental underbelly.
Mengistu’s regime came to an end in 1991, a victim of a confluence between domestic and international factors. At home, there was unrest among various sections of society that had led to the formation of rebel movements, the most prominent of which was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) whose leader, Melez Zenawi, became the new President (1991-1995) and later Prime Minister till his demise in 2012.
Zenawi carried out important reforms that led to significant political and economic transformation. On the political front he oversaw the writing of a new constitution which created the Federal government at the center and regional states. He also forged a nationwide political party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), in a move to unify the country. On the economic front, Zenawi presided over the economic revival and transformation of Ethiopia. During his reign, the economic growth stood at over 10% annually, making Ethiopia one of the fastest growing economies in the world. His pragmatic economic policies accompanied by relative political stability attracted massive foreign investments. Ethiopia was one of the early beneficiaries of Chinese road and rail projects on the continent. Upon Zenawi’s death in 2012, Haile Mariam Desalegn took over as Prime minister. Desalegn continued with Zenawi’s policies. He was, however, replaced by the current Prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, in 2018. Abiy has initiated far reaching economic and political reforms. The enthusiasm with which he pursued these reforms earned him a Nobel Peace Prize shortly after he succeeded Desalegn. His decision to replace EPRDF with a new party, the Prosperity Party, irked some constituent parties of the former, especially TPLF which refused to dissolve, precipitating the recent war between the federal government and TPLF which controlled the Tigray region.
Ethiopia is regionally and internationally significant for various reasons. Its hydro-power potential is the second largest in Africa. It is the source of over three-quarters of the waters of River Nile. Of course it controls the Blue Nile Gorge. River Nile is a strategic source of water for economic activities in about ten riparian states on its basin, with Egypt considering it, its “lifeline”. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Nile River has, therefore generated serious misunderstanding between Egypt and Ethiopia with the former fearing the dam will reduce its water intake from the river. Its capital city, Addis Ababa, is the headquarters of several international organizations, including the African Union (of which it was the founding member), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the Nile Basin Commission. In possession of one of Africa’s most powerful militaries (with an estimated 150,000 active-duty troops by 2023), Ethiopia is a guarantor for peace in South Sudan, Somalia and Sudan; where its defense forces are participating in peace keeping missions.
Throughout its existence, Ethiopia has exhibited the image of a fragile yet strong state, intermittent doses of instability notwithstanding. Successive regimes have always restored normalcy and stability through strategic decisions and policies that have ensured that the country continues to enjoy its privileged position in the Horn and the continent. Paying attention to ongoing political reforms, dealing with internal frictions at home, and managing relations with her neighbors’ such as Somalia and Eritrea has implications for peace and in turn spurs her economic potential.