Implications for domesticating COP 28 Resolutions: Case of East Africa

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Africa, despite contributing less than 3 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions (IEA, 2022), experiences disproportionately severe impacts from climate change—the greatest crisis of the 21st century. Droughts and floods, in particular, are becoming increasingly lethal, disruptive, and disturbing, necessitating no more sounding bells, with impacts cutting across all sectors, including agriculture, health, education, energy, and tourism. The impacts of climate change are jeopardizing the livelihoods and wellbeing of households that are recovering from the COVID-19 crisis (Njuguna & Azomahou, 2023), exacerbated by socio-economic vulnerabilities with the potential to undermine the current positive economic growth in East Africa led by countries like Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda (AfDB, 2023). The region has no choice but to brace for even more lethal impacts should we fail to ensure the world remains on a 1.5oC-compatible trajectory (IPCC, 2023).

However, as a crisis without borders, climate change has prompted concerted global efforts to address it. This has been evidenced by the deafening calls, particularly at the Conference of Parties (COPs), the global decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and intensify adaptation efforts to protect vulnerable populations. Efforts have been made through continued domestication of international agreements like the Montreal Protocol (1987, amended in 2016), the UNFCCC (1992), which established the COPs, and the Kyoto Protocol (2005). The Kyoto Protocol has been superseded by the Paris Agreement (2015), which is the significant global climate agreement ratified by over 190 parties that has since seen countries, including those in East Africa, set emissions-reduction targets through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

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Importantly, COPs have been a major milestone in championing efforts to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and address climate change, with countries meeting every year since their inception in March 1995 in Berlin, Germany, through November-December 2023 in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai. COPs create spaces for the parties to reflect and determine how to bridge the gaps in progress towards sustainable reversal of climate impacts, particularly for the most vulnerable populations and developing countries. COP28, being the most significant meeting, marked the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GST), which is the main mechanism for assessing the progress made by nearly 200 countries in their NDCs under the Paris Agreement to help align efforts on climate action.

After demonstrating that progress in all areas of climate action, such as reducing GHG emissions, enhancing resilience to a changing climate, and securing financial and technological support for vulnerable nations, was too slow, countries responded by deciding to expedite action in all areas by 2030. However, what does it look like to domesticate the COP28 resolutions, particularly in developing countries, which are beset with unique contextual issues? Against this backdrop, this commentary explores the implications of domesticating COP28 resolutions in East Africa, focusing specifically on:

  • Accelerate efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems and to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
  • Triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and;
  • Operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund to support the vulnerable communities to deal with the impacts of climate change.

Transition away from fossil fuels

Transitioning away from fossil fuels is undoubtedly a challenging decision, primarily due to the global geopolitics (IRENA, 2024) surrounding this shift and their central role in a countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, although not legally binding, the COP28 laid the basis for a not only swift but also just and equitable transition, tied to emissions reductions and scaled-up finance, through its official recognition of fossil fuels as the main force behind the changing climate. Reinforcing this recognition, nearly 200 parties agreed to abandon the use of fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner to ratchet up climate action by 2030, meet the Paris Agreement climate target of keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, and protect vulnerable populations and the planet. While this landmark resolution is a big gain for Africa, especially East Africa, which suffers the most from climate change yet contributes little, its implementation comes with some implications for the region.

Similarly, to their previous contribution to economic development in the global north, fossil fuels hold significant potential to bolster economies in the global south. Fossil fuels represent approximately 40% of African exports, contributing significantly to the continent’s revenue, particularly in countries such as Angola, Algeria, Nigeria, and Sudan. As the fastest-growing region in the continent (AfDB, 2023), new oil and gas discoveries in East Africa signal a possible prosperity in the region. For instance, the discovery of oil deposits in Uganda in 2006 would have seen its production commence with the construction of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), a joint venture involving Total Energies, Uganda, Tanzania, and others. Uganda identified oil as an essential resource to drive economic growth and development, enabling the realization of its Vision 2040 strategy. This strategy aims to transform Uganda into a competitive upper-middle-income country within 30 years, with a per capita income of USD 9,500. A bank’s report in the country also deemed oil exportation crucial to helping the country manage its growing public debt. Similarly to Uganda’s prospects, the British oil explorer Tullow Oil in Kenya projected 2024 as the earliest likely date Kenya can expect to start gaining from its Turkana oil —anticipated gains being put in a dilemma.

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Further, population growth presents another hurdle for transitioning away from fossil fuels. Expected to reach approximately 2 billion people by 2050, the rapidly growing population in East Africa is increasing the demand for energy, with most of the region, like the rest of the continent, lacking access. Although fossil fuels’ role in the power mix is estimated to decline gradually, natural gas’ expectations to stay in the mix and help the region meet its energy needs, will likely influence abandoning of the fossil fuel.

While the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels is a significant step forward, it potentially stands in the way of the socio-economic growth trajectory in East Africa anticipated to gain from the discovery of oil deposits. However, given the recognition of fossil fuels’ contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and the deafening calls to reduce emissions, implementing the resolution in a just and orderly manner, within a framework of enhanced transparency is necessary. This could help to prevent perceptions of the transition as an unfair transfer of climate responsibility to developing countries, but as a step towards safeguarding human wellbeing and planetary health.

Tripling renewable energy by 2030

In an effort to shift away from fossil fuels, the majority of governments (118) have pledged to triple the capacity of renewable energy globally and double the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Marking significant progress towards decarbonizing the energy sector—the source of about three-quarters of global GHG emissions—the renewable energy industry will see the creation of jobs worldwide, with about 26 million jobs in Africa by 2050, as diverse enterprises are already spearheading the advancement and broadening of renewable energy production and distribution in East Africa.

Tripling renewable energy could be one of the low-lying fruits in Africa, with East Africa not only holding unique potential for renewable energies spanning wind, hydro, solar, and geothermal (IEA, 2022; Kong’ani & Kweyu, 2022), but with already ongoing efforts in the region to harness its abundant renewable resources to meet growing energy demands sustainably. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda have led efforts in the development of solar and wind power in the past 10 years. Large-scale solar projects continue to increase across the region, with Kenya’s Lake Turkana Wind Power project signifying the region’s potential for wind energy. Kenya also leads in Africa in geothermal development and sits in the top seven globally (Kong’ani & Kweyu, 2022), with both Kenya and Ethiopia currently using under 5% of their geothermal capacity. Ethiopia, on the other hand holds great potential for generation of hydropower. East African countries have integrated renewable energy targets into their national energy plans and implemented various policies and regulations to promote renewable energy development and attract investment (Njuguna & Azomahou, 2023), creating an enabling environment to triple renewable energy development.

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However, despite East Africa’s huge renewable energy prospective and concerted efforts to develop the renewable energy industry, these efforts face resource constraints—both financial and expert—infrastructure and technological hurdles (IRENA, 2024; Kidunduhu, 2021; Kong’ani & Kweyu, 2022). Despite the ongoing initiatives with high levels of private sector involvement to hasten the role of renewable energy and electrification (IRENA, 2020) in East Africa, more local and global partners are required to plug in to unlock the full potential for the triple of renewable energy in the region.

Operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund

With the formal recognition of the loss and damage in 2013 at the 19th Conference of the Parties (Cop19) in Warsaw, where the world saw the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, its interest continued growing with more countries discussing loss and damage in their NDCs. While countries agreed during COP 27 to establish a Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) to support nations susceptible to climate change, the historic agreement to operationalize the fund, including the adoption of a new dedicated fund under the UNFCCC at COP28, is long overdue. According to Newman & Noy’s, (2023) analysis, climate change caused at least $2.8 trillion in loss and damage to the world between 2000 and 2019, and it is likely that unprecedented global climate impacts will result in significant losses. Inter alia, 2023 heatwaves in Europe and Asia, wildfires in Australia, cyclones in the southern part of Africa, flooding in Africa and parts of Asia, and droughts in east Africa have made the unprecedented climate change impacts and risks more challenging to manage, particularly in developing countries.

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Recently in East Africa, extreme rains and floods unleashed a wave of destruction, displacing hundreds of thousands of people, ruining infrastructure, killing people, and destroying farmlands in countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, which also face looming food insecurity post-floods (OCHA, 2024). Over 450 people died in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, with an estimated 1.6 million people affected in Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and Tanzania (OCHA, 2024). The situation in East Africa underscores both the urgency and the complexity of addressing climate change amidst the IPCC’s warning of more severe droughts and flooding, with the resolution to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund marking a significant step towards aiding the region’s ability to deal with the losses.

However, because the COP28 resolutions are not legally binding and countries can choose to donate to the LDF, it may be harder to raise enough money. So far, about US$700 million has been raised, which is only 0.2% of the amount that is thought to be needed by developing countries to deal with the problems caused by climate change. The developed countries, which are also the biggest emitters, have the option to not only contribute to the kitty but also decide on what to contribute, with countries such as the United States, the world’s largest economy, committing about $17.5m. According to this trend, the success of the Fund in assisting developing countries in dealing with the ongoing impacts of climate change depends on the political will of wealthy countries to contribute to the Fund. In addition, effective governance is important to ensure that vulnerable countries, including those in the East Africa region, can access the Fund.

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 Conclusion

Climate change impacts requires no more sounding bells as the world contends with its devastating impacts with vulnerable populations particularly in developing countries, including from East Africa suffer the most. COP28 resolutions marked a significant step forward in hastening climate action across countries and sectors. However, a nuanced approach is required in the domestication of these resolutions in East Africa ensuring a balance between socio-economic developments and hastening climate actions. Regardless of its socio-economic consequences, transitioning away from fossil fuels presents an opportunity for a just and equitable shift towards sustainable energy, leveraging the region’s abundant and untapped renewable resources. Besides the decision to triple renewable energy capacity and improve energy efficiency by 2030, the transition requires massive investment and regulatory reforms with support beyond the region. The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund is a critical pillar for raising financial resources required to aid the vulnerable communities deal with the lethal impacts of a changed climate. However, the effectiveness of its implementation hinges on robust political will, adequate funding from developed countries, and strong governance strategies to ensure fairness, transparent and access by the vulnerable populations. Collectively, these efforts can significantly enhance not only climate action and resilience but also sustainable development trajectory beyond East Africa.

References

IEA. (2022). CO2 Emissions in 2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3c8fa115-35c4-4474-b237-1b00424c8844/CO2Emissionsin2022.pdf

IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

IRENA. (2020). Scaling Up Renewable Energy Deployment in Africa. Detailed Overview of IRENA’s Engagement and Impact. International Renewable Energy Agency.

IRENA. (2024). Geopolitics of the energy transition: Energy security (p. 82). International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/Publications/2024/Apr/Geopolitics-of-the-energy-transition-Energy-security

Kidunduhu, N. (2021). Energy Transition in Africa: Context, Barriers and Strategies. In V. R. Nalule (Ed.), Energy Transitions and the Future of the African Energy Sector (pp. 73–111). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56849-8_3

Kong’ani, L. N. S., & Kweyu, R. M. (2022). Toward Sustainable Implementation of Geothermal Energy Projects; the Case of Olkaria IV Project in Kenya. In Geothermal Energy—Impacts andImprovements[WorkingTitle].IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.107227

Newman, R., & Noy, I. (2023). The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change. Nature Communications, 14(1), 6103. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1

Njuguna, N., & Azomahou, T. T. (2023). Challenges and Opportunities of Climate Change: The Case of East Africa. The Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Chapter-8.-Challenges-and-opportunities-of-climate-change-The-case-of-East-Africa.pdf

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