Mashariki Research and Policy Centre

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Our ProgramConflict Trends

Conflict Trends

MRPC decodes evolving intra and inter-state conflicts, communal tensions, and hybrid armed actors, transforming real-time data into actionable insights for governments, multilateral agencies, NGOs, and the private sector.

Our Activities / Monitoring:

  • Tracking political, social, and resource-driven conflict triggers
  • Analyzing hybrid and transnational armed actor dynamics
  • Conducting community-level participatory assessments
  • Scenario modeling of emerging conflict flashpoints

Our Methodologies:

  • Conflict Vulnerability Index (CVI) and geospatial risk mapping
  • Early warning systems for real-time monitoring
  • Predictive short- and medium-term conflict projections
  • Field validation through local engagement

Our Products:

  • Monthly East Africa Conflict Briefs
  • Conflict Forecast Reports
  • CVI-Integrated Dashboards for decision-making
  • Rapid Crisis Response Notes

Our Locations / Areas:

  • Borderlands and high-risk zones
  • Communal tension hotspots
  • Resource-scarce regions
  • Cross-border spillover areas

Our Impact:

  • Anticipates and prevents conflict escalation
  • Guides stabilization and rapid response strategies
  • Strengthens regional security and resilience
  • Informs evidence-based policy and community interventions
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