While there exists no direct link between terrorism and climate change, there is a positive relationship between the two that permit terrorist groups to exploit the effects of climate change.[1] According to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), climate change is considered a threat multiplier in conflict zones.[2] In addition, this has been acknowledged by the Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from the Institute for Economics and Peace – headquartered in Sydney, which highlights that Somalia has been flagged as the most at risk hotspot country.[3]
Contextually, a hotspot country is identified by the resilience of each country and how well they can confront natural disasters. A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, 2019) emphasizes that the effects of climate change have been an ongoing source of hardship for people in Somalia.[4] Although countries in East Africa are among the lowest contributors to global gas emissions, they are disproportionately impacted by the effects of climate change. For instance, the SIPRI report specifically notes that Somalia has historically dealt with challenges such as drought. However, in recent years, new factors such as increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have intensified these challenges, leading to a catastrophic situation. Somalia, along with neighboring countries in East Africa has until recently experienced five failed rain seasons.[5] These ongoing climate-related occurrences have caused significant harm to the region and its people, further destabilizing an already fragile context and providing fertile ground for the proliferation of terrorist groups exploiting the ensuing desperation and resource scarcity. This commentary seeks to explain the nexus between climate change and terrorism in Somalia.
Since Somalia’s state and social resilience to climate consequences is limited, it is estimated that the ability of around 70% of the population to meet their basic needs depends heavily on a regular climate pattern.[6] However, over the past decade, climate change has significantly worsened conditions in Somalia, particularly through increased desertification and recently floods. This environmental degradation has greatly heightened the vulnerability of the local population. The phenomenon has exacerbated existing tensions within Somalia, particularly among different clans and warlords, by intensifying disputes over increasingly scarce natural resources including pasture and water. As such, these resource-based conflicts have provided fertile ground for the expansion of terrorist groups such as the Al-Shabaab, through exploitation of the instability and desperation of affected communities. Additionally, the harsh climate conditions have led to increased migratory flows, as people move in search of more viable living conditions. This migration further strains resources in the areas they move to, creating a cycle of vulnerability and conflict.
Moreover, the relationship between the proliferation of illegal armed groups and climate disparities in Somalia is clearly noticeable in the case of Al-Shabaab. For instance, the adverse effects of prolonged droughts, prior to the recent flooding have led to widespread famine and food insecurity in the country with disproportionate impact on the lives of many including young people of which 80% are unemployed.[7] With limited job prospects and no means of survival, youthful individuals in this jurisdiction often find themselves in desperate and vulnerable situations. As such, armed groups, particularly the Al-Shabaab often exploit this desperation, offering not only food and financial incentives, but also a sense of belonging and purpose. Consequently, many young Somalis are easily recruited into the extremist group in a bid to survive. This form of recruitment strategy is particularly effective as it not only caters to the immediate needs of the affected population but also capitalizes on their vulnerability. Consequently, the severe droughts thus not only exacerbate humanitarian crises but also significantly contribute to the growth and persistence of terrorist groups in Somalia.
In light of the discussed key issues, it is evident that climate change acts as a significant threat multiplier in Somalia, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and contributing to the proliferation of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab. The intersection of environmental degradation and socio-political instability creates a cycle of hardship and conflict, perpetuating the region’s challenges. This dynamic not only undermines the stability of Somalia but also threatens regional security, necessitating urgent and comprehensive intervention. Thus, to mitigate these issues, it is essential to implement strategies that address both the environmental and socio-economic dimensions of the climatic crisis. Firstly, it would be essential to strengthen the resilience of local communities through sustainable agricultural practices, improving water management systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure. Secondly, youth empowerment should be prioritized primarily through the creation of job opportunities and vocational training programs in efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to radicalization that may lead to violent extremism. Promoting dialogue and conflict resolution mechanisms among clans will equally be of great significance in addressing natural resources disputes. Equally, increasing humanitarian aid and support for food security programs is crucial to alleviate the immediate impacts of famine. Lastly, enhancing investments in climate adaptation and mitigation interventions will reduce the long-term impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations. Addressing these areas can help break the cycle of vulnerability and conflict, promoting stability and security not only in Somalia but the entire Eastern Africa region.
[1] Climate of Terror? Approaches to the Study of Climate Change and Terrorism, 2022
[2] Armed conflict and climate change: how these two threats play out in Africa, The Conversation, 2022
[3] Ecological Threat Report 2023, Institute for Economics & Peace Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace
[4] Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia, SIPRI, 2019
[5] Greater Horn of Africa faces 5th failed rainy season, World Meteorological Organization, 2022
[6] Climate change is feeding armed conflict in Somalia, Refugee Consortium of Kenya, 2022
[7] Heritage Institute, Youth Unemployment and Security in the Republic of Somalia, 2022.