Introduction
Climate change is not only a global environmental crisis but also a profound threat to peace and stability. It undermines social cohesion and contributes to the rise of radicalization, particularly in vulnerable regions such as East Africa, which remains among the most severely affected by the intersecting challenges of climate change and violent extremism. Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature, weather patterns, and environmental conditions, largely driven by human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation (Rawat, 2024). Radicalization, the process through which individuals adopt extreme beliefs that can lead to violent actions, is closely linked to violent extremism—the use of violence to achieve ideological, religious, or political goals (Raitanen, 2024). As climate change exacerbates resource scarcity, displacement, and economic hardship, it creates conditions that fuel radicalization and violent extremism in vulnerable communities. These environmental shifts have caused food and water shortages, leading to intercommunal conflicts over diminishing resources. The region, already grappling with extreme weather patterns, prolonged droughts, and erratic rainfall, is seeing rising threats such as insecurity, radicalism, and violent extremism. Additionally, the fragile socio-political climate in certain parts of East Africa makes the region more susceptible to violent extremist groups, which exploit these challenges to recruit new members and expand their influence (Ekom, 2025). This discussion examines how climate change serves as a catalyst for violent extremism by analyzing the environmental challenges contributing to security risks. It further proffers policy recommendations to mitigate these security threats and strengthen community resilience across East Africa.
Key Issues
- Diminishing vital natural resources, a cause of conflict and insecurity: Diminishing vital natural resources have become a major driver of conflict and insecurity in East Africa, with resource scarcity exacerbated by climate change fueling violent extremism. Prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall have intensified competition for water and grazing land, heightening tensions between pastoralist and farming communities (Homer-Dixon, 2011). In Kenya’s Turkana and Baringo regions, violent clashes over these limited resources have led to displacement and loss of life. Similarly, in Ethiopia’s Oromia and Somali regions, recurrent droughts have worsened ethnic conflicts. Extremist groups, such as Al-Shabaab, exploit these grievances, recruiting individuals from communities already destabilized by resource scarcity and conflict. To address these challenges, it is crucial to implement sustainable resource management practices alongside conflict resolution strategies.
- Economic hardship forcing vulnerable groups into extremism: Economic hardship, exacerbated by climate change, has made vulnerable groups in East Africa more susceptible to extremist recruitment. Prolonged droughts and unpredictable weather patterns have severely impacted agriculture and livestock, pushing many communities into poverty (Mayhew, 2022). In Kenya and Ethiopia, pastoralists and farmers who lose their livelihoods are often left facing food insecurity and displacement. Extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia exploit this desperation, offering financial incentives and a sense of purpose to those struggling to survive. Similarly, in Tanzania and Uganda, the economic challenges stemming from high youth unemployment have made young people more vulnerable to radicalization. Addressing the economic hardships caused by climate change is essential in reducing the appeal of violent extremism in these communities.
- Increased natural calamities triggering climate-induced displacement. The increasing frequency of natural calamities, driven by climate change, has significantly heightened displacement in East Africa, further raising the risk of radicalization. Prolonged droughts, floods, and desertification have forced millions to migrate in search of food, water, and livelihood opportunities (Mustak, 2022). In Somalia, climate-induced displacement has left many individuals in refugee camps, where extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS exploit poverty and frustration to recruit fighters. Similarly, in Kenya’s arid regions, displaced pastoralists face economic hardship, making them highly vulnerable to radicalization. Ethiopia and South Sudan also experience displacement due to climate-related conflicts, creating fertile ground for extremist ideologies to take root.
- Weak governance and lack of political good-will creating insecurity vulnerability gaps: Weak governance and security gaps in East Africa have worsened violent extremism, with climate change further intensifying these challenges (Mackenzie, 2020). According to WHO, the prolonged droughts in Somalia had displaced approximately 1.3 million people by September 2023, with 8.3 million facing acute food insecurity by June 2023. These conditions strained the government’s ability to provide essential services, creating power vacuums that extremist groups like Al-Shabaab exploit by imposing taxes and blockades to expand their control. Similarly, in South Sudan, four consecutive years of flooding have affected two-thirds of the country, forcing pastoralist groups to migrate to new regions (WHO, 2024). This migration has increased tensions with host communities, leading to conflicts that the government struggles to manage due to limited resources and capacity.
Conclusion
Climate change is a significant driver of violent extremism in East Africa, exacerbating resource conflicts, economic hardship, displacement, and governance challenges. Addressing these interconnected crises requires a comprehensive approach that strengthens climate resilience, promotes sustainable resource management, and enhances economic opportunities for vulnerable populations. Additionally, improving governance and fostering regional cooperation are essential to mitigating security risks and preventing extremist groups from exploiting climate-induced vulnerabilities. By implementing targeted policies and investing in long-term solutions, East African nations can build more stable, resilient communities and reduce the appeal of violent extremism.
Policy Recommendations
- To mitigate conflicts driven by resource scarcity in East Africa, governments and regional bodies must implement sustainable resource management policies alongside conflict resolution mechanisms. Investments in water conservation, reforestation, and climate-smart agriculture can reduce competition over dwindling resources. Strengthening local governance structures to mediate disputes and promoting intercommunal dialogue will foster peaceful coexistence.
- To counter climate-induced economic hardship that fuels extremism in East Africa, governments must implement policies that enhance climate resilience and economic opportunities. Expanding climate-smart agriculture, improving irrigation infrastructure, and supporting alternative livelihoods can help communities adapt to environmental challenges. Enhancing social protection, financial inclusion and entrepreneur programs, such as cash transfers and job training, should target vulnerable populations, particularly youth, to reduce their susceptibility to extremist recruitment.
- To mitigate the security risks of climate-induced displacement in East Africa, governments must invest in sustainable climate adaptation and robust social support systems. Strengthening early warning systems, building climate-resilient infrastructure, and implementing land restoration projects can reduce forced migration. Regional cooperation is crucial for managing cross-border displacement, while targeted interventions in refugee camps can prevent extremist recruitment by providing education, employment, and community engagement programs that foster stability and resilience.
- To address the security vulnerabilities caused by weak governance and political inertia, governments in East Africa must prioritize strengthening institutional capacity and disaster response mechanisms. This includes improving governance transparency, increasing investment in early warning systems for climate-related disasters, and enhancing resource allocation for emergency response efforts. Additionally, Governments must also develop policies that integrate climate adaptation with security strategies, ensuring that displaced communities receive adequate support to prevent extremist groups from exploiting their vulnerabilities.
References
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