1.0 Introduction

Although Eastern Africa contributes less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains at the frontline of the global climate crisis (AfDB, 2024). The region faces worsening climatic shocks including frequent and severe droughts, floods, and landslides. Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Somalia, and South Sudan, which rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors like rainfed agriculture, fishing, pastoralism, forestry, and mining, face rising climate risks that threaten food and water security, livelihoods, and social stability (ACEPIS, 2022; FAO, 2022; Trisos et al., 2022). These shocks intersect with existing vulnerabilities like population pressures, weak governance structures, rapid urbanization, and resource competition intensifying tensions and rising risks of displacement and conflict (Rüttinger et al., 2022). Together, these dynamics make resilience-building a complex challenge requiring pragmatic, inclusive and future-oriented solutions. This commentary explores how integrating climate financing and adaptation pathways can strengthen Eastern Africa’s resilience.

2.0 Key Issues

2.1 Deepening and Intersecting Climate Vulnerabilities

Eastern Africa climatic vulnerabilities are growing and connected to socio-political instability. Extended droughts, inconsistent rainfall, flooding, and rising temperatures are threatening agricultural, food, water, and livelihood systems (ACEPIS, 2022). Over 20 million people in the Horn of Africa faced food insecurity due to six consecutive failed rainy seasons. By 2022, food insecurity affected 3.5 million in Kenya’s arid areas and 7.7 million in South Sudan (Ibid). Climate stress increases relocation, resource disputes, and burden urban systems confronted with rapid population growth and insufficient infrastructure (Adaawen et al., 2019). As climate risks become more complex and compounding, forward-looking strategies that address risk layering, tipping points, and intersectoral feedback are critical. Yet climate risks remain poorly integrated into sectoral policies and budgets. A coordinated, multisectoral approach is required to address the immediate impacts and systemic vulnerabilities in the region.

2.2 Climate Financing: Gaps, Accessibility, and Alignment

Despite increased international financing, Eastern Africa faces an enormous gap of over USD 200 billion to implement its NDCs by 2030 compounded by the increasingly small proportion of total flows for adaptation finance (ACEPIS, 2022; CIP, 2024). Financing is largely reliant on debt, worsening fiscal pressure on constrained economies, and is unevenly distributed across countries and sectors, with little reach to local communities or cross-sectoral needs like urban resilience and health (Cherry-Virdee et al., 2024; ACEPIS, 2022). Carbon markets and debt-for-climate swaps remain underexploited due to complexity and institutional weaknesses. Private sector contribution is constrained by perceived risks and regulatory shortcomings. Without urgent reforms encompassing more grants, decentralization and domestic capacity, adaptation will remain disjointed, inequitable, and inadequate.

2.3 Transitioning Adaptation Pathways from Projects to Systems

Whereas several countries have included adaptation into their NDCs and regional frameworks like the IGAD Climate Adaptation Strategy (2023–2030), efforts are fragmented and reactive. In order to effectively manage evolving climate risks, adaptation must evolve from isolated projects to integrated, flexible systems that support continuous learning, sequencing and timely adjustments (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Sparkes et al., 2023). Without adaptive governance’s anchoring in scenario planning, early warnings, and risk-informed decision thresholds, adaptation risks remaining fragmented and ill-equipped for escalating climate crisis.

2.4 The Centrality of Social Equity and Inclusive Governance

Social inequality must be addressed to promote resilience in Eastern Africa. Women, youth, and displaced communities are often excluded in adaptation planning, despite bearing the brunt of climate impacts. Climate financing hardly reaches the local level limiting community-led responses and reinforcing disparities (ACEPIS, 2022; Cherry-Virdee et al., 2024). Environmental degradation increases vulnerability: loss of forests, wetlands, and rangelands weaken ecosystem-based adaptation (UNEP, 2021; 2024). Knowledge gaps and siloed planning hinder integration of nature-based solutions into resilience strategies. Inclusive governance, grounded in indigenous knowledge and local perspectives is both a moral imperative and a strategic necessity for equitable, context-responsive adaptation (CASCADE, 2023; ICLEI Africa, 2023).

3.0 Conclusion

Eastern Africa faces a climatic crisis as environmental shocks worsen socio-economic and political vulnerabilities. Governments and regional bodies have made progress in designing adaptation plans and strategies, their implementation is limited by inadequate financing, fragmented governance, and underrepresentation of vulnerable communities. Without systems for iterative learning and course correction, adaptation pathways risk being reduced to project-level interventions. Inadequate mainstreaming of climate risks into national planning and investment decisions perpetuates inequality and undermine resilience. However, when climate finance is aligned with robust adaptation pathways, it enables responsive and inclusive action that strengthens institutional and community capacities. Transformative adaptation will require increased financial commitments and institutional adjustments that prioritize equity, ecosystem integrity and local agency in policy and action.

4.0 Policy Recommendations

4.1 Scale up flexible, grant-based, and decentralized adaptation finance mechanisms

Adaptation finance must transition from debt-heavy and donor-driven approaches to flexible, grant-based sub-national mechanisms to serve the most vulnerable communities. Scaling decentralised financing like Kenya’s FLLoCA and Uganda’s LoCAL and strengthening absorptive capacity will enhance community-led resilience.

4.2 Mainstream climate vulnerabilities into sector plans and policies

Mainstreaming vulnerabilities especially for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, and urban development will strengthen budget alignment, policy coherence, and financing opportunities. This also requires aligning adaptation actions with national development goals to attract blended financing and climate-informed public investments.

4.3 Institutionalize adaptation planning through risk monitoring and learning platforms.

Eastern Africa’s adaptation must transition from reactive, project-based approaches to dynamic, proactive pathways. Integrating adaptive tools such as urban learning labs, and scenario-based planning into national and sub-national governance facilitates continuous monitoring, learning, and timely adjustment.

4.4 Promote inclusive governance and participatory approaches to climate adaptation

Climate threats disproportionately affect marginalized communities. Their inclusion enhances legitimacy, ownership, and contextual relevance. Inclusive platforms that integrate traditional knowledge with formal processes, multi-stakeholder adaptation forums and participatory budgeting, are vital for equitable, effective resilience-building.

4.5 Integrate nature-based solutions into adaptation finance and policy frameworks

Reforestation, wetland restoration, and rangeland management provide scalable, cost-effective, and equitable solutions. Nature-based approaches provide ecological and livelihood co-benefits, particularly in flood-prone or degraded regions. Public-private partnerships, insurance, and green stimulus can accelerate uptake and mainstream resilience.

5.0 Bibliography

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