The current Red Sea crisis has been precipitated by the actions of Yemen’s Houthi rebels who claim to be in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza who have been under siege since October, 2023 when Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched an operation to “exterminate the Hamas.” The latter had earlier launched a deadly attack inside Israel, killing dozens and kidnapping several people, including foreigners. Since November, 2023, the Houthis, who now control the Red Sea, have launched several military strikes on commercial vessels and ships operated by entities associated with the United States (US), Britain, France and any other country or entity aiding or sympathizing with Israel in its Gaza operation. Incidents of piracy have also increased. The Iran-backed Houthis demand a cease fire and an end to the Gaza operation. On the other hand, the US is leading a “Maritime Coalition” of about 20 countries, including its traditional western allies like France and Britain, themselves major actors in maritime commerce in the Red Sea. They have been launching strikes and counter strikes on the installations and bases of the Houthis at the Red Sea and inside Yemen where the rebels control a large swath of territory. While the Houthis have been hostile to US and its allies, and even publicly banned their vessels from the Red Sea, they have allowed Chinese and Russian vessels and ships to operate freely. Even more intriguing is the fact that as the US and its allies engages the Houthis in strikes and counter strikes, Iran, Russia, and China are participating in joint military exercises in the region. The three have formed a naval alliance. It is clear that a “bipolar” situation with Russia and its allies on one side of the aisle and US with its allies on the other is evolving in the region. The crisis is threatening to snowball into a “Battle of the High Seas” following recent threats from the Houthis that they might extend their operations to the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.
Global commerce has been disrupted. Apart from security risks facing ships and vessels, thereby making most of them to follow longer routes, global commercial activities in the Red Sea have reduced by 40% (UNCTAD, March, 2024). Since the crisis began, almost 300 vessels are now going around Africa. This has increased the cost of operations, costs which are being passed on to consumers with the attendant rise in inflation and commodity prices. Two ships carrying petroleum products, chemicals and fertilizers are also said to have been sank into the sea. This poses threats not only to human life but also to aquatic life. The aim of this commentary is to highlight the geopolitical implications of the Red Sea crisis for the Eastern African region.
The Red Sea is both geo-economically and geo-politically important regionally and globally for several reasons. Separating Africa from the Arabia and Asia, it connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean; it is host to important waterways, namely, the Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman and Bab-Al-Mandab. At its junction with the Mediterranean is the Suez Canal, an important passage for commercial ships and vessels to and from Europe and other countries. It is estimated that 10-15% of global commercial transactions pass through the Red Sea. 12% of global oil exports are also transported through the sea (UNCTAD, March, 2024). Overall, this is one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. The Gulf of Aden provides an important passage for oil from the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal enroute to other parts of the world. The presence of these vital waterways and straits has always made the sea important not only for global commerce, but also geopolitical and geo-strategic manouvres of global powers in the past and present. During the Cold War, US, Soviet Union (now Russia) and France, all maintained military bases in African countries in the immediate neighborhood of the Red Sea. Today, France, US, Japan and China all maintain bases in Djibouti. Qatar, another important actor in the region has put in billions of US$ into developing ports in Somalia and Sudan. Turkey is investing in a military training facility in Somalia and a port in Sudan. Russia is also putting up a naval logistics facility in Eritrea.
Given the significance of the Red Sea as observed above, it is obvious that the ongoing crisis has important geopolitical implications on the Eastern African region. The presence of foreign military bases in the region, especially in Djibouti, may bring the Red Sea “war games” to Eastern Africa. The Houthis, themselves branded terrorists, might get sympathy and support from other terrorist groups which are already in the region. They may target foreign interests in regional states that are seen to be supporting US and its allies in their war with the Houthis. Secondly, various parties to the Red Sea conflict will certainly seek allies from the region (US is already rallying some states on its side). Individual countries will take sides depending on their specific interests. This may undermine the principle of collective security that underwrites regional organizations in the region such as the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC). Thirdly, there is every likelihood that should the US-led coalition succeed in pushing the rebels out of the Red Sea, they may pursue them beyond Yemen and scatter them into the East African region. There are so many ungoverned spaces in the Horn and the Great Lake regions due to ongoing conflicts in Sudan, DRC, South Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Some of the rebels might join the already existing terrorist cells or militias in the region. Yet others may opt for piracy as a means of income.
The fourth geopolitical impact of the crisis relates to the disruption of critical information infrastructure. There are fears that the strikes and counter strikes both sides of the conflict might compromise underwater communication cables that drive the internet. There are fiber optic communications that might be interfered with, especially now that Houthis have acquired sub-marine weapons. A regional arms race may also ensue with different countries in the region being armed by different actors in the conflict. New military assistance programs and agreements are likely to emerge. Should Houthis make good their threat to extend the conflict to the Indian Ocean, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania might see their maritime security undermined. There may also be a shift in alliances and partnerships between states in Eastern Africa based on each country’s position on the crisis.
While it is obvious that the Red Sea crisis is increasingly becoming a global affair involving major powers, countries in the Eastern African region need to develop mechanisms to mitigate the adverse geopolitical implications of the crisis. Such mechanisms should be at multilateral (through regional organizations such as the African Union (AU), EAC and IGAD), bilateral and national levels. Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia should collectively develop maritime security strategies to mitigate any security challenges and threats that might spill over into their ocean waters as a result of the Red Sea crisis. In particular, Somalia, which is the closest to the crisis area, should put in place measures to invigorate security within and around the Gulf of Aden. Somaliland should do the same. IGAD Early Warning systems should be activated, with periodical updates on the situation at the Red Sea presented to relevant organs for necessary action. Kenya, having developed a framework for bilateral cooperation with the US on the crisis should ensure that the dividends of their cooperation are shared with its IGAD and EAC counterparts, especially in the area of intelligence sharing. In order to prevent a spill over of the crisis into the currently unstable and crisis laden Sudan, the AU and IGAD should step up their efforts to solve the crisis facing Sudanese government. Countries in the Eastern African region should also consider joining the Indian Ocean Rim countries in securing maritime commercial routes along and within the ocean.